Ambush DFS Preview: RBC Heritage

Courtesy: PGA.com

It doesn’t get any better golf viewing than what we got last week. Quite honestly, I had never felt so much like I was actually golfing with these guys than I have ever before. We watched people hit it in the water on multiple occasions (even on back to back swings), Zach Johnson took a practice swing and actually hit the ball, and Jon Rahm hit the craziest shank from the middle of the fairway I’ve ever seen. It couldn’t have felt more realistic on the golf course to all of us weekend hacks. I don’t know how we can possibly beat the excitement of last week, but we move on and get another sneaky good field for the RBC Heritage with some prices on both DraftKings and FanDuel that we can hopefully take advantage of. Let’s get to it.

Sure Play: Matt Kuchar (DK 10,000 / 11,500 FD)

There might not be a better time to go in on Kuchar unless you believe in Masters fatigue or you think 90% of the field is going to be playing him. He’s having an amazing season so far with two wins under his belt and has been in contention on multiple other occasions. He also quietly made a run at the Masters with a 12th place finish. Not only that, the RBC Heritage is a place that suits his game so well. It requires great accuracy from the tee to the green, which is exactly what he is good at. The best ball strikers typically end up on the top of this leaderboard, and Kuchar specifically proves that in his past results. In his last five tries, he four finishes in the top 11, including a win in 2014. Good form, good fit, and good history is a great recipe for success.

Hit or Miss: Francesco Molinari (DK 11,300 / 11,800 FD)

As mentioned with Kuchar, some of the best ball strikers tend to do well at this tournament. If there’s anything to know about Moli, it’s that he’s one of the most consistent ball strikers and rarely makes mistakes (let’s just ignore the back 9 last week). In theory, this looks like a crush spot for Moli. The field is good, but not amazing, and he should be able to play his normal hit fairway, hit the green, one or two putt game and win this thing easily. However, he doesn’t have that great of history here for being one of the highest priced players on the slate. His best finish in the last three years is 22nd, and his other two finishes were in the 40’s. The most recent time playing here other than the last three years was 2011, where he missed the cut. Although it seems like a course set up for him, it doesn’t seem like he likes it very much. It will be interesting to see how he fares this weekend.

Mid-Tier Favorites: Jason Kokrak (DK 8,800 / 9,600 FD)  Lucas Glover (DK 7,800 / 9,600 FD)

Kokrak: His price has steadied out in the high 8k range, and like I wrote for the Valspar, it’s the highest it’s been in a long time but still might not be high enough. He now has four finishes in the top 10 in his last five events and has a handful of other finishes in the top 20 on the season. He also hasn’t missed a cut in 2019. His game is built around accuracy with his approach which should suit him well here. He’s solid all around and has scored well this year. As long as he can find fairways he should continue the hot streak he’s on. He has missed the cut the last two years, however, he’s playing much better golf in 2019 than he had been in the last couple years. Prior to the last two years, he had three finishes in a row in the top 20, so he’s seen success here before even if the last couple years might not have indicated that.

Glover: Statistically speaking, Glover’s game is one of the best fits for this course not only in his middle-of-the-road price range but the whole field in general. Glover is another guy that finds success with his approach game, which I mentioned is already an important skill to have for this tournament. Scores are not as high in this tournament as others, so being able to avoid bogeys and scramble around the course is also important to stay in contention. Glover is first on tour in both Bogey Avoidance and Scrambling so far through 2019, which should give him an extremely good chance to keep himself in the mix all week, given he continues that pattern. Putting is usually what gets him in trouble week to week, so as long as he avoids the really big numbers with the flat stick, he should do really well.

Value Plays: Bud Cauley (DK 7,300 / 8,800 FD), Corey Conners (DK 7,300 / 9,300 FD) D.J. Trahan (DK 6,300 / 7,700 FD)

Cauley: Here’s another guy whose game is built on accuracy and avoiding the big numbers. Although his approach numbers are just average, his accuracy off the tee will give him great opportunities on this course. Since the greens are small and hard to hit, even if he misses, he’s above average in scrambling and avoiding bogeys so he should be able to keep himself in it by avoiding the big numbers. He finished 23rd last year and 9th the year before, so it is obvious he knows his way around this golf course.

Conners: Coming in off a win at Valero and a nice showing last week at the Masters, Conners gets back to another course that suits his game. His approach statistics put him near the top of the tour and definitely towards the top of this field, and he’s another guy that’s pretty good at keeping bogeys off the scorecard. Obviously, he’s playing really well right now and there doesn’t seem to be a lot of reasons he wouldn’t continue that trend this week. Unless, of course, Masters fatigue is real! His course history is not that great, but I think it’s fair to say he’s playing much different golf this year than he has in past years when he’s played this event.

Trahan: He seems to make it into this section for me every week he plays. Although this field is much stronger than what he typically plays in, a price this low for a guy that’s played really well is hard to pass up. His approach statistics are just average, except from the 125-150 yard range where he’s fourth on tour. He’s seventh on tour in bogey avoidance and eighth in scrambling, typically a good indication for success in this tournament. At this price though, all he really needs to do is make the cut, since you’ll be able to pair him with some more quality (and expensive) guys that will likely be in contention on Sunday.

 

Not sure we can beat how awesome last week was, but there should be some great golf played this week nonetheless!

 

Good Luck!

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