Finally, we are one day away from The Masters. We’ve heard enough all week about that cool SubAir system Augusta National has working with their drainage system to pull water off the course, $4 domestic beers, and pimento cheese sandwiches (never been, but they sound horrible). It’s time to get to the actual golf! All the world’s top golfers are coming into the tournament in really good form, and any one of them has as good of a chance as another to win this thing. The DFS guaranteed prize pool contests are huge, and of course, DraftKings is running its Millionaire Maker contest again. Larger prize pools are great, but that also comes with a larger number of entries in the contests, so you really have to nail your lineups in order to do well in the contests. You can easily make a case for all the top priced players in the field to win, so I’m going to focus here on some of the mid and low-priced guys I like to help you compliment your favorite expensive golfers. Let’s get to it.
Tony Finau (DK: 8,200 FD: 9,900)
After a less-than-stellar performance in a good spot last week, Finau finds himself in another good spot with a pretty low price this week. Assuming the course stays relatively wet for the first couple days, his length off the tee should be an advantage to get him some shorter shots compared to the competition into these tricky greens. He can rack up birdies in a hurry just about anywhere, and we know that birdies in DFS are king. Putting is typically what gets him in trouble. As mentioned last week, he and I make six foot misses look equally easy. However, the greens at Augusta are crazy hard, and the whole field will likely struggle on them, which is only good news for Finau as that will bring the field backward to him. He finished tenth last year on one good ankle, imagine what he can do with two!
Patrick Cantlay (DK: 7,700 FD: 9,900)
Augusta has been stated by many as being a “second shot course,” so ball-striking and approach are important, but golfers with good off-the-tee ratings have historically done well in this tournament in the past as well. The good news for Cantlay is whether it’s his first or second shot, he’s been good with both so far this year. He ranks 23rd in Shots Gained – Approach, 22nd in Shots Gained – Off The Tee, 10th in Shots Gained – Tee to Green, and 16th in Green in Regulation Percentage. All stats that bode well for a good showing at The Masters. He also is 7th in Driving Distance average on the tour, which should give him an advantage the first couple days on a slower course like I mentioned above with Finau.
Cameron Smith (DK 7,400 FD: 9,600)
I think overall pricing was done well for the most part on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, I believe Cam Smith is one person that they missed the mark on, more specifically on DraftKings. You can usually see that the sites will price guys up when they’ve recently done well in that tournament, and especially the guys that contend in most of the tournaments they play in general. They didn’t do this with Cam, however. He finished fifth last year and has been having a pretty solid season with a handful of top 20 finishes along with winning the Australian PGA Championship. The statistics don’t jump out at you, but he’s been good with his approach this year, and that’s important on a “second shot course.” He seems to hang around the top of the leaderboard in most tournaments he plays which should be more than good enough at his price in this tournament.
Charley Hoffman (DK: 6,800 FD: 8,500)
Charley seems to be rounding into form just in time for a tournament he’s always found some success in. His last five tries, he hasn’t finished worse than 30th and finished 12th last year. He’s likely to be owned in a lot of lineups, but it’s warranted with his most recent play and his course history. He is another guy on tour that can rack up birdies in a hurry, and he’s especially done that at Augusta, which will be helpful in DFS lineups.
Emiliano Grillo (DK: 6,600 FD: 8,900)
As we get down to these low prices, you’re looking for guys that you can complement with your high-priced guys that are likely going to be your highest scoring. Picking guys in this range allow you to get two or sometimes even three elite golfers in your lineup in stacked fields like this. Grillo’s game fits the course well and has shown that with two cuts made in two tries, including a 17th place finish in 2016. He’s 32nd in Shots Gained – Tee to Green, 30th in Shots Gained – Off the Tee, 11th in Shots Gained – Approach, 15th in Green in Regulation percentage, and is an elite ball-striker at sixth on tour in that category. He’s got the game to not only make the cut to help your lineups but if he gets his putting going, he can really push up the leaderboard.
Fred Couples (DK: 6,200 FD: 7,800)
Every week I like to pick someone out that has a REALLY good history at the course, but the statistics just cannot give you a good reason to play him. Couples is that guy this week. Looking back at the last ten times he’s played The Masters, you’ll see he missed the cut three times, and the rest of the finishes are honestly amazing at his age, skill level (compared to other tour guys), and his recent play. Six of his finishes are in the top 20, which includes an 18th place finish just two years ago. He finished 38th last year, but even then, you are only looking for a made cut at a near bottom price. He seems to find some magic every year at Augusta, and if he can find it again this year and you pair him with multiple elite golfers at the top of the field that ends up contending on Sunday, you can really do some damage in some of these large prize pool tournaments.
My One and Done pick and who I think will win this week is Justin Rose. Although as I mentioned, you can make a case for any of the top guys in the field, so it won’t be a surprise if any of them win. Looking forward to some great golf no matter what happens, but a million dollars at the end of it definitely wouldn’t hurt!
Good luck, hope you win millions, and GO TIGER!