Way too Early NFL Season Win Total Predictions Part One

NFL Win Predictions

Credit: nfl.com

 

Ladies and gentlemen, with the unfortunate demise of the AAF we now have the time to return to the beautiful world of the NFL. This shift in focus comes just in time for the release of the NFL 2019 season win totals in Las Vegas. We still have to wait for the results of the draft, but with free agency, almost certainly over we already have a clear picture of the rosters most NFL teams will be strutting out onto the field.

NFL season win totals is a market that is often pounded by most gamblers, whether sharp or square. The numbers that were released last week will likely be different by the time the casual bettors can get their hands on them at most offshore books. Nonetheless, we will use these numbers to take a very early stab at predicting the outcomes for our favorite NFL teams. Keep in mind I won’t be going too far into detail and will take another look once the offshore numbers come out. These are some quick thoughts on what we already see.

 

Arizona Cardinals

2018 Record: 3-13

2019 Projected Win Total: 5

I firmly believe that the Cardinals are going to take QB Kyler Murray with the first overall pick. Does a new QB matched with new Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury mean that the Cardinals can win two more games than the prior year? No. Take the under.

Murray will bring explosiveness to this team, but I do not think he is worth two more wins himself. The Cardinals are heading in the right direction, but they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. They play the Rams twice, the Browns, Steelers, Saints, and Ravens. Year one for Murray and Kingsbury will be more successful than 2018, but I cannot see more than four wins on this schedule. At least they get to play the Giants, that could be an easy one.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 4-12

 

Atlanta Falcons

2018 Record: 7-9

2019 Projected Win Total: 8.5

Last year was a difficult one for the star-studded Atlanta Falcons. A team with so many big names has been riddled with injury on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, they have lost some key pieces during this offseason and haven’t done much to replace them. Most notably is the loss of RB Tevin Coleman to the 49ers. Coleman always played a complementary back to starter Devonta Freeman, but Freeman has proven over the years to often fall to injury.

I do not think that the Falcons will have Freeman all year, and back up Ito Smith is not the answer. The NFC South is still one of the most challenging divisions, and I cannot see the Falcons winning two more games compared to the year prior. They are going into the 2019 draft with nine draft picks, but those playmakers won’t make a substantial impact until next year. Another year will pass, wasting the fantastic talent of Julio Jones once again. I’m on the under.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 7-9

 

Baltimore Ravens

2018 Record: 10-6

2019 Projected Win Total: 8.5

After shocking the world and winning the AFC North last year, I see significant regression for the Ravens this year. Teams will now have tape on QB Lamar Jackson, which will prove vital when going up against the elusive playmaker. The Ravens defense has been ransacked by other NFL teams this offseason, and even signing big name safety Earl Thomas won’t be enough to emulate the 2018 season.

The AFC North has easily gotten worse with a number of key players leaving the Steelers, and the Bengals continuing to chase mediocrity. The only other team that might give the Ravens a challenge for the top spot in the weak division will be the Cleveland Browns.

Saying all this, because the Ravens are in what some consider a weak division, and with teams like Buffalo, Miami, and Arizona on their 2019 schedule, I have to lean to the over 8.5 wins. Assuming they can split with the Steelers and Browns, this will quickly put them in position to win the division and go over their projected win total. Too close for me to make a play.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 9-7

 

Buffalo Bills

2018 Record: 6-10

2019 Projected Win Total: 6

I cannot find a way to say positive things about this Buffalo Bills team. They have invested way too much draft capital into a very mediocre QB in Josh Allen, they have the oldest RB combination in the NFL, and they have added subpar WRs to an already weak WR core. The only positive for the Bills is the fact that the Dolphins and Jets haven’t done much to make themselves enormously better in 2019. Oh, and Josh Allen can throw the ball 80 yards downfield.

You can almost automatically write in two losses to the New England Patriots every year, and they have been matched up against the NFC East for the upcoming season. They can potentially split with both the Jets and Dolphins and still need four more wins to go over six. The only other potential wins I can see are against the Giants and the Redskins. That being said, my favorite play so far will be the under six wins for the Bills.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 5-11

 

Carolina Panthers

2018 Record: 7-9

2019 Projected Win Total: 8

What have the Panthers done so far to merit a one win increase over 2018? Well, QB Cam Newton has sworn off sex for a month, so there is that. RB Christian McCaffrey is still an absolute stud and will continue to strive in this offense. Unfortunately, the NFC South is the Saints division to lose, and both the Falcons and Bucs are never guaranteed wins. The Panthers also have one of the toughest away schedules in the NFL, going up against the Saints, Texans, Colts, and Packers on the road.

Matt Paradis helps at center, but that won’t be enough to get the Panthers over their projected win total of eight. Unless Cam Newton can come out of his month-long break from sexual relations throwing the ball like Troy Aikman, I would have to go under for the Panthers in 2019.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 7-9

 

Chicago Bears

2018 Record: 12-4

2019 Projected Win Total: 9.5

The 2018 Chicago Bears were unexpected, to say the least. When last years win totals came out, the Bears were sitting at six; they ended up doubling that and winning twelve. If it were not for an unfortunate “double doink” in the playoffs against the Eagles, who knows what the Bears could have accomplished.

Most of the key pieces are coming back this year, except for RB Jordan Howard who has been traded to the aforementioned Eagles. I do not think that QB Mitch Trubisky is the best quarterback in that division, but his all-star defense tends to make up for the offensive issues. It doesn’t hurt that they play the Lions twice, the Redskins, Broncos, and Raiders. I believe that Khalil Mack and Trubisky will be able to lead this Bears team to at least ten wins, take the over.

2019 Win-Loss Record: 10-6 


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